Molten iron yield predicting of blast furnace using PSO-BP model based on PCA decision
DUAN Yifan1, LIU Xiaojie1, LI Xin1, LIU Ran1, LI Hongwei1, ZHAO Jun2
1. College of Metallurgy and Energy, North China University of Technology, Tangshan 063210, Hebei, China; 2. Tangshan Branch, HBIS Group Co., Ltd., Tangshan 063020, Hebei, China
Abstract：The yield of molten iron is an important economic indicator to measure the capacity efficiency of steel plants, and its accurate prediction according to the characteristics of furnaces is conducive to capacity structure optimization of steel plants and promotes the stability and high yield of blast furnace. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of molten iron yield, combined with machine learning theory, a hybrid prediction model of particle swarm optimization-back propagation (PSO-BP) based on principal component analysis (PCA) decision-making was proposed based on the annual production and smelting data of a domestic steel plant in 2022. To begin with, principal component analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of the original data set, and then the particle swarm search algorithm was used to optimize the weight matrix of BP neural network, which successfully solved the problem that BP neural network had slow convergence speed and was easy to fall into local optimality. Finally, combined with the ironmaking theory, the input vector and topology of the model were determined according to the results of principal component analysis. The testing results show that the prediction error of the model is smaller than that of other traditional models, and the accuracy rate is 99.8% when the error range is ±50 t, which accurately realizes the prediction of molten iron yield for blast furnace, effectively guides the transfer scheduling of molten iron ladles, and provides data support for blast furnace parameter regulation.
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DUAN Yifan, LIU Xiaojie, LI Xin, LIU Ran, LI Hongwei, ZHAO Jun. Molten iron yield predicting of blast furnace using PSO-BP model based on PCA decision[J]. China Metallurgy, 2023, 33(11): 114-126.
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2023, Vol. 33 
